As the climate crisis worsens, the world watches closely for new leadership, especially from the Global South, where impacts are often most severe and voices have historically been underrepresented. The 2025 BRICS Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro, reached a pivotal moment. Brazil, also presiding over #COP30, hosted the expanded #BRICS bloc, now including Egypt, the UAE, Iran, and others. This gathering signalled a potential shift in global climate governance, indicating that emerging and developing economies could step forward to fill leadership gaps left by retreating powers.
However, beneath the summit’s bold statements lies a complex reality. While BRICS communicated a strong climate ambition, experts warn that strategic ambiguity and internal contradictions may weaken the bloc’s credibility as a climate leader. This blog examines the nuances of the Rio Summit’s outcomes, the challenges BRICS faces, and the implications for the upcoming COP30 in Belém.
A Declaration with Bite—But Missing Teeth
The Rio Summit’s final declaration was a structured, proactive statement on equity-based climate diplomacy. It urged the Global North to meet its historical climate finance commitments and endorsed Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF). The bloc also called for clarity on delivering the ambitious $1.3 trillion per year “Baku to Belém” (B2B) climate finance roadmap, highlighting a shared view of development and justice as intertwined in climate ambition.
Yet, glaring contradictions remain. While the declaration did acknowledge the #Debt burden , it proposed solutions, centred largely on scaling up #Climate #Lending—risk deepening rather than alleviating that burden. Without explicit safeguards, restructuring mechanisms, or concessional finance commitments, such lending could entrench financial precarity in the name of climate ambition. The declaration was also silent on #LossAndDamage compensation and lacked concrete timelines for phasing out #FossilFuels, which are central to the climate justice agenda.
Some experts suggest this silence is intentional, aimed at avoiding friction with China, whose Belt and Road Initiative involves heavy lending to Global South nations. Others argue it reflects a familiar pattern in Global North diplomacy: making ambitious statements while avoiding uncomfortable financial commitments.
Strategic Climate Leadership or Systemic Hedging?
The timing of BRICS’s new climate stance is significant. Climate multilateralism is fracturing: the United States, under President Trump’s legacy, continues to retreat from Paris Agreement commitments, and recent #G7 summits prioritized AI governance and security over climate finance. In this context, BRICS positions itself as a counterbalance, emphasizing equity, climate finance reform, and trade justice.
However, contradictions are evident:
– Trade and Green Protectionism: BRICS criticizes the EU’s green protectionism but offers no alternative trade framework.
– Forests and Adaptation vs. Loss and Damage: The bloc claims leadership on forest protection and climate adaptation but avoids discussions on loss and damage and does not propose grant-based financing for vulnerable nations.
– Green Finance vs. Fossil Fuel Expansion: While calling for increased climate lending and green bond markets, most BRICS members continue expanding #FossilFuel infrastructure. There are no new net-zero commitments, timelines, or internal peer review mechanisms.
This coexistence of green finance initiatives alongside fossil fuel expansion risks large-scale greenwashing, where “green ambitions meet fossil realities.” Without transparent accountability mechanisms involving international civil society, BRICS risks becoming a platform for statements without clear direction.
The Road to COP30: Three Key Areas to Watch
1. Brazil’s Balancing Act
As both the BRICS host and COP30 president, Brazil stands at a crossroads. President Lula champions renewable energy and climate action internationally, yet domestically, Brazil continues to invest heavily in fossil fuels. How Brazil navigates this tension—and whether it can rally BRICS heavyweights like China and India around a “Just Transition” agenda—will be critical for COP30’s success.
2. India and China: From Rivalry to Climate Alignment
Despite longstanding geopolitical tensions, India and China showed surprising climate alignment in Rio. They found common ground on climate finance governance, carbon border taxes, and tropical forest protection. Notably, they exercised restraint on contentious issues like critical minerals, signalling a willingness to prioritize inclusive South-South cooperation over rivalry. This emerging partnership could prove pivotal not only for COP30 but for the broader Global South climate agenda.
3. BRICS and the Quest for Mutual Leadership
While BRICS pushes for economic sovereignty and climate leadership, it does so cautiously. Experts believe the bloc seeks “mutual leadership” alongside the European Union, especially as it explores climate-aligned trade and currency reforms like de-dollarization. This strategic co-leadership may be necessary to counterbalance U.S. hostility toward climate policy and the emerging BRICS economic order. COP30 thus becomes a potential platform for collaboration rather than confrontation.
Projection or Purpose? The Crossroads for BRICS
BRICS has positioned itself at the forefront of climate diplomacy, but it has yet to choose whether to lead with a clear purpose or remain mired in ambiguity. Its greatest strength lies in challenging the entrenched global order and advocating for equity. Yet, without internal alignment, transparent accountability, and concrete delivery mechanisms, the bloc risks institutionalizing inertia.
The Global South no longer needs symbolic gestures—it demands aligned action, coherent coalitions, and bold confrontation with vested interests both inside and outside BRICS. Brazil, as COP30 host, holds a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between vision and delivery. But this will require BRICS to evolve from a bloc of selective ambition into a platform of shared accountability.
Until then, the question remains: Is BRICS leading a climate revolution or merely narrating one from a safe distance?
The Climate Decade’s Defining Moment
The 2025 BRICS Summit in Rio was more than a diplomatic event—it was a litmus test for the Global South’s capacity to lead the climate decade: the bloc’s declarations signal potential, yet the absence of critical commitments and internal contradictions temper optimism.
As COP30 approaches, the world will watch whether BRICS can transform strategic ambiguity into decisive climate action. Success would redefine global climate governance and empower developing nations to shape their own future. Failure risks perpetuating the cycle of rhetoric without results, leaving the Global South—and the planet—vulnerable.
The climate decade demands more than vision. It demands purpose.
By Nakul Sharma, Program Coordinator, CANSA